1. The Brutalist
Touting a ‘dark intellectual’ approach, The Brutalist is a cross between a tear jerker about immigrants and a sweeping classical account. It is like a mixture of There Will Be Blood and The Godfather Part II as its the plot and outstanding acting on all levels makes it strong. Although scheduled for later release in the year, its anticipation has begun to surge due to good reviews, and more so, because of Jones and the other actors tipped to be great.
2. Anora
The different monitors of the Anora movie may be let down, but the early criticism has the potential to hinder its momentum. With Anora which is directed by Shawn Baker of The Florida Project’s fame, the film continues to attract praise from critics with its engaging themes and cinematography. The release strategy appears a bit rushed through, which has vegetated some discussions, but with a universal nature and Benny’s recognition long overdue it is strong in the competition.
3. Wicked
The musical adaptation Wicked is making waves as both a box office and critical darling. With strong performances by Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, the film’s resonance across acting, cinematography, and even screenplay categories ensures its presence on the nomination list. Its ability to bridge audience appeal and critical acclaim gives it significant momentum.
4. Conclave
Another strong candidate in the competition though it raises new concerns regarding its general audience appeal is Conclave, which is a politically themed drama. It is a movie in which Ray Fiennes features one of the most essential roles, although some question whether there will be enough first place votes in the preferential voting system for the film. Nevertheless, its decent performance on important precursors internalizes it within the equation.
5. The Substance
Initially dismissed by skeptics, The Substance has proven its staying power with consistent recognition at Critics Choice and Golden Globes. Margaret Qualley and Demi Moore’s acclaimed performances, coupled with the film’s thought-provoking themes, position it as a dark horse despite the Academy’s historical indifference to horror.
6. Emilia Perez
She is a controversial figure but nevertheless, she continues to grow in popularity and ‘Emilia Perez’ has not been able to break the mold. Despite the show being volatile, it’s music, editing and acting awards which was earned due to amazing performances, allowed it to be said in the race. Such a campaign could propel it over more technically accomplished contenders such as Dune: Part Two.
7. Dune: Part Two
Even though it has received critical acclaim and has produced some brilliant works, Dune: Part Two faced some issues which were unforeseen during the award circuits. The Golden Globes snub of Denis Villeneuve indicates a possible weakness within its campaign. However, its technical achievements, coupled with the support from the industry, ensure that it competes robustly.
8. Nickelboys
This adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer-winning novel has kept going strong thanks to devoted fans who cast ballots ranking it high on their lists. It may not receive a large number of nominations across the board, but the film then is a good fit based on how people felt and the level of support it received.’
9. A Complete Unknown
There is a pattern that musical biopics tend to do well with the Academy and A Complete Unknown, a movie which tells the story of Bob Dylan, is no exception. It has had a reasonable critical and industrial interaction, thanks to performances by Edward Norton and Timothée Chalamet. Though not a technical masterpiece, its wide coverage makes sure it does not go out of the discussion.
10. Sing Sing
Originally praised by critics and loved by audiences, Sing Sing has been successful but has lost out on potential due to its narrow distribution plan. But the film does stand a chance with its ensemble cast and emotion-laden narrative, however, it needs to elevate its awards campaign if it wants to secure a seat in the final lineup. Strong showings at SAG could solidify its position.
Honorable Mentions
1. A Real Pain: Kieran Culkin’s performance and a solid presence at precursors keep this drama in the mix, though its overall impact remains uncertain.
2. September 5: Initially pegged as an Oscar favorite, its presence in major categories has been inconsistent, making it a borderline contender.
3. Challengers: Despite critical support, this Zendaya-led film lacks the widespread industry enthusiasm needed for a Best Picture nod.
4. All We Imagine Is Light: A surprise Golden Globe directing nomination has sparked interest in this international feature, though its path remains challenging.
As the season unfolds, the race for Best Picture continues to evolve. From guaranteed heavyweights like The Brutalist to dark horses like Sing Sing, this year promises surprises and fierce competition. Stay tuned for more insights as the nominations draw closer.